The Washington establishment is stuck in a 1960s time loop. Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s recent declarations that Cuba’s system is "broken" and demands "major change" aren't just predictable; they are symptoms of a policy paralysis that has achieved exactly zero of its stated objectives over six decades. Calling a failing economy "broken" is like calling water wet. It’s an observation, not a strategy.
We keep hearing the same tired script: squeeze the economy, wait for the collapse, and watch democracy bloom. It hasn't happened. It won't happen this way. If we want to actually move the needle, we have to stop treating the island like a Cold War museum piece and start looking at the cold, hard mechanics of geopolitical influence.
The Sanctions Delusion
The "lazy consensus" in D.C. suggests that if we just tighten the screws one more turn, the Cuban people will rise up and install a Jeffersonian democracy. This ignores every historical precedent of the last century. Sanctions, when applied to authoritarian regimes, rarely result in democratization. Instead, they act as a massive subsidy for the ruling elite’s narrative.
When you choke an economy, you don't hurt the people in power. They have the guns, the warehouses, and the black market connections. You hurt the aspiring middle class—the very people who are actually capable of driving internal change. By maintaining a total embargo, the U.S. effectively kills the private sector in Cuba before it can even breathe. We are effectively doing the Cuban government's job for them by stifling independent economic actors who might otherwise challenge the state's monopoly on power.
Why the "Broken" Narrative Fails
Rubio argues the system is broken. Technically, he’s right. The Cuban energy grid is a disaster, inflation is rampant, and the migration crisis is proof that the youth have lost hope. But describing a system as "broken" implies that the goal is to "fix" it from the outside.
External "fixing" is a fantasy.
Real change in closed societies happens through asymmetric engagement. Look at Vietnam. We didn't topple the Communist Party of Vietnam through isolation. We opened up. Today, Vietnam is a vital trade partner and a strategic bulwark against Chinese expansion. By refusing to engage, the U.S. has created a power vacuum on its own doorstep.
Who filled that vacuum?
- Russia: Re-establishing intelligence bases and offering oil lifelines.
- China: Building out digital infrastructure and port facilities.
- Iran: Forging "anti-imperialist" security pacts.
By sticking to the "broken" rhetoric, we aren't isolating Cuba. We are isolating ourselves from Cuba. We have traded actual influence for a handful of electoral votes in South Florida. It is a high-cost, low-reward trade that has compromised American national security for decades.
The Logic of the Leverage Gap
If you want to influence a neighbor, you need leverage. In the world of realpolitik, leverage comes from being the indispensable partner. Right now, the U.S. has zero leverage over Havana because we have zero skin in the game.
Imagine a scenario where American telecommunications companies were allowed to build the island’s 5G network. Imagine if American banks were the primary lenders for Cuban small businesses. The moment the Cuban government tries to crack down on dissent, you have a "kill switch" that actually matters—economic ties that would hurt the state to lose. Instead, we’ve outsourced that leverage to Beijing. Every time we walk away from the table, we hand a seat to an adversary.
The Myth of the "Clean" Transition
The most dangerous part of the current rhetoric is the idea that a collapse would be a "win." It wouldn't. A total state collapse 90 miles from Key West would be a humanitarian and security nightmare of biblical proportions.
We are talking about:
- A massive, uncontrolled refugee surge that would make the Mariel boatlift look like a weekend cruise.
- A security vacuum where transnational criminal organizations and cartels would set up shop in the absence of a central authority.
- The potential for a failed state that requires a multi-billion dollar U.S. military intervention to stabilize.
The "major change" Rubio calls for is often code for "collapse." But a controlled evolution is infinitely more desirable for American interests than a chaotic implosion. We should be terrified of what we wish for.
Stop Trying to "Save" Cuba
The fundamental flaw in American thinking is the "Savior Complex." We assume that Cuba is a problem for us to solve. It’s not. It’s a sovereign reality we need to manage.
The most effective tool for subverting an authoritarian regime isn't a speech from the State Department; it’s a smartphone with an unfiltered internet connection and a bank account that isn't tied to the state. When we restrict remittances and limit travel, we are cutting off the oxygen to the Cuban people, not the Cuban government.
The Counter-Intuitive Path Forward
If we were serious about "major change," we would do the one thing that scares the Cuban hardliners the most: Flood the island with American influence.
- Open the floodgates of travel. Turn Havana into a suburb of Miami. Make the Cuban government deal with millions of American "ambassadors" carrying ideas, cash, and information.
- Direct support for the "Mypimes" (Small Businesses). Create legal pathways for U.S. investment directly into Cuban private enterprises, bypassing the military conglomerates (GAESA).
- Information Dominance. Instead of radio broadcasts that no one listens to, subsidize satellite internet and hardware.
The Cuban government thrives on the "siege mentality." They need the "Yankee Imperialist" bogeyman to justify their failures. Every time a high-ranking official stands at a podium and threatens "major change," they are giving the Cuban regime exactly what it needs to keep the population in line.
We have tried the "broken" approach for sixty years. It has yielded a ruined economy, a suffering population, and a permanent foothold for our greatest global rivals. It is time to admit that our Cuba policy isn't about Cuba at all—it's about domestic political theater. And as long as we prioritize the theater over the reality, we will continue to lose.
The current system isn't just broken in Havana. The system for dealing with Havana is broken in Washington. It's time to stop shouting at the wall and start figuring out how to knock it down with the only tool that ever works: reality.
The status quo is a slow-motion defeat. If you aren't willing to change the play, don't act surprised when you lose the game.
Stop talking about change and start creating the conditions where change becomes inevitable. That doesn't happen through isolation. It happens through the overwhelming, messy, and unstoppable force of engagement. If that makes people uncomfortable, good. Comfort is how we got into this mess.
